Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis (November 2025) spotlights two major discoveries revitalizing mature European basins: Aker BP’s Omega Alfa find in the Norwegian North Sea and Central European Petroleum’s (CEP) Wolin discovery in Poland’s Baltic Sea. These “breakthroughs” signal untapped potential amid the energy transition, challenging narratives of basin exhaustion and potentially adding hundreds of millions of barrels to regional supply.

Aker BP uncovered over 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) in thin, laterally extensive oil columns east of the abandoned Frigg gas field (near UK border). This boosts the Yggdrasil project’s resources to ~800 MMboe, with ~250 MMbbl oil expected in the area.

Employed a record 10,666-meter multilateral well testing five targets (succeeding in four) – a novel approach for previously uneconomic reserves left untouched since Frigg’s 2004 closure due to tech limits. 

Fast-tracked for development; Aker BP eyes further finds using this method, enhancing Norway’s upstream resilience.

CEP’s 200 MMbbl find – Poland’s largest ever – off the Wolin coast, the biggest in northern Europe (incl. North Sea) since Wisting (2013).

Breakthrough by a small Canadian firm; potential upside via enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

~$2B capex needed for plateau; CEP (100% owner) plans farm-down post-2026 appraisal, likely to Orlen for tie-in to Gdansk refinery (290 km east) via artificial island FPSO.

These finds could spur Baltic exploration and add ~300-400 MMboe to Europe’s reserves, supporting energy security. Yet, they underscore the “long goodbye” to fossils: viable at $50-60/bbl but vulnerable to policy shifts and renewables’ rise. A pragmatic boost for investors, but no game-changer for global supply.

/Wood Mackenzie/