CERAWeek 2026 convened in momentous times – from war with Iran to the convergence of Tech and Energy on how to power AI. In this note, I try to capture some of the key highlights and takeaways. Not easy for a conference of 11,000 people, 1400 speakers, and 1100 sessions. But here it goes.
CERAWeek 2026 unfolded over a momentous time. One pole was war in the heartland of Middle East oil plus, overall, rising geopolitical risks and alliance tensions and the uncertainties they create. At the other end was the strong Ai-tech-power convergence and how it is transforming the energy industry, business models, priorities and spending. And in between was much else.
It is not easy to capture the takeaways from a conference of 11,000 people and 1400 speakers over 1100 sessions in an event that is comprised of both the Executive Conference and the Innovation Agora. It drew senior industry leaders from 90 countries and a multitude of government ministers and other policymakers from around the world. Yet the conference theme – “Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology, and Geopolitics” – did provide a framework that played out over the five days, March 23-27. Here, I aim to share a some of the many perspectives from the week but with the understanding that it is inevitably incomplete.
Competition
The “Competition” certainly captured not only what is happening in the marketplace but also those dominating issues of geopolitics.
The war with Iran was central to the agenda and generated much discussion as to strategy and outcome. What was not debated was that this crisis amounts to the biggest disruption in the history of world energy, and that it disrupts not only oil and gas but other important supply chains, ranging from fertilizers and petrochemicals to helium and aluminum. There was discussion as to whether risk was being appropriately priced. The immediate impact in terms of energy is being felt in Asia, to which 80 percent of Strait of Hormuz oil goes. Also, it is even higher for LNG – over 90 percent – which unlike oil cannot be partly diverted by pipelines. Nawaf Al Sabah, the deputy chairman of CEO of Kuwait Petroleum, spoke live from Kuwait City and emphasized that, contrary to what the Iranians were claiming about attacking only U.S. and Israeli interests, they had also hit the wholly-owned KPC refinery and even the country’s social security building as well as many other civilian targets. He, like other Gulf leaders, said it would be intolerable for Iran to control the Strait. Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, underlined the importance of restoring the balance in the Gulf and assuring free passage through the Strait. Marine General James Mattis, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and before that head of Central Command, laid out the complexities of the strategic issues and challenges.
The lasting impacts of the crisis, said many participants, would be determined by the duration of the conflict and its outcome, the degree of destruction of infrastructure in the Gulf Arab countries, and the ultimate status of the Strait of Hormuz as an international seaway. Concern also arose over the Bab el-Mandeb strait out of the Red Sea and what Iran’s ally the Houthis, which had bottled up the Red Sea for two years with drones and missiles, may do in coming weeks. Discussion ensued as to whether, after the conflict, the full recovery of the supply chains might take as much as two-thirds of a year – and some infrastructure, much longer. From a military point of view, the conflict revealed the stark new face of drone warfare – and the adaptation to it.
Turning to Venezuela, one of the most arresting moments came with the remarks of Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. She delivered a stunning address on the prospects for a democratic free market Venezuela devoid of corruption. And, in a first, she received not one but two standing ovations.
As to the oil production and economic recovery outlook for Venezuela, three perspectives emerged. One is for smaller companies – independents and entrepreneurs and regional companies – that would seek to move quickly on specific opportunities. Larger companies will look at nearer-term opportunities, such as off-shore natural gas, that could be brought on in two or three years. In terms of major multi-year investments, large companies would be looking for competitive fiscal terms, sanctity and stability of contracts, and physical security – and all of that still to be determined. Also potential investments in Venezuela, as is standard practice in the industry, will inevitably be ranked against other opportunities. It was noted that, notwithstanding Venezuela’s former star role in world oil, neighboring Brazil currently produces four times as much oil as Venezuela, and Guyana, only seven years in production, about as much as Venezuela. While oil is seen as the main show for Venezuela’s future, there was also discussion of its prospectivity for minerals and the contractual terms required for their development.
The disruption in the Gulf gave center stage to the overall question of energy security. One of the enduring lessons of my book The Prize is how energy security always returns as a concern and that, to the degree possible, not distorting market responses with arbitrary interventions leads to better adjustment and outcomes.
Sustainability along with carbon management continued to be a major subject but now more tightly linked to energy security, as EU Commissioner Ditte Jull Jorgensen noted. The present crisis made for robust discussions on the role of renewables, nuclear and geothermal, with a sense that Ai and the multiple energy crises are changing the resource equation: affordability and security loom large, and that could advantage sustainable technologies and the acceleration of electrification strategies in a new way.
LNG and Upheaval
The disruption put additional spotlight on the growth of U.S. LNG. CERAWeek 2026 marked the 10th anniversary of the first modern shipment of LNG from the United States – the departure of which had been broadcast at CERAWeek in 2016! From that sole shipment the United States has gone on to become the world’s largest supplier of LNG. Now the urgency among European and Asian buyers was evident. But diversification was also on the agenda, with the launch last year of Canada’s West Coast LNG facility, increased attention to Eastern Mediterranean natural gas, and the development of other LNG projects around the world.
When it came to oil, there was debate over the week about future prospects for U.S. oil and, in particular, shale. Some foresaw a coming plateauing that would flatten out overall U.S. output in the 14-15 million barrel per day range. Others argued that technology would increase single digit recovery and perhaps double the recovery rates. But what was also evident was a renewed emphasis on global exploration to meet the long-term global demand and the realities of depletion. This turned to the capabilities and thinking required to shorten the time development time for bringing on new projects.
There is also “Competition” among countries in economic terms. That was very timely in the discussion with Katherina Reiche, Germany’s minister of economy and energy. She reiterated her call for a “reality check” for Europe’s climate and regulatory policies and also the importance of getting a new balance that takes into account Europe’s multiple challenges – declining international competitiveness and deindustrialization, and the political and economic costs thereof, as well as the need to increase defense spending. She emphasized the costs of heavy-handed regulation divorced from economic and market realities. This was part of a larger debate across the conference from European policymakers and private sector leaders about how to improve competitiveness midst Europe’s second energy crisis within four years.
Tadeshi Maeda, chairman of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, addressed the economic impact of the crisis both on Japan and globally. Japan, it appears, is facing inflation, which it hasn’t known for a long time. Much discussed were inflationary risks in the United States. Among the reasons posited were expansionary fiscal policies, supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and tariffs and trade disputes. And all this was before the Iran War. The conclusion – challenges ahead for central banks.
Convergence – Tech Meets Energy
“Convergence” was centrally evident in the form of “Tech meets Energy” – meeting the electricity needs for data centers and AI. As one hyperscaler put it, the two “sides” are learning to work together and talk to each other, adding that “electricity” was not even a topic a few years ago in their company. The rapid growth of data centers could, in the United States, push up their share of electricity demand from around 5 percent to 14 percent or higher – although some responded that greater efficiencies could offset that growth Overall U.S. electricity demand is rising after a quarter century of quiescence. The result said Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Laura Sweet, is that “we have a supply and demand problem”. Inevitably, it is also becoming a political issue. Hyperscalers described policies aimed at insulating their demand from rates that residential and industrial consumers pay. In the meantime, the overall supply chains are strained to meet the growth. As one participant put it, this is a shift from “replacement” of generation capacity in an era of flat demand to “addition” in an era of rising demand. Natural gas, solar, and wind will all be part of the energy mix for new generation.
Nuclear will also be part of the supply response. The change in perspectives on nuclear was palpable, with new entrants into electric generation and supply, mothballed plants being pulled back into operation, new plants proposed, and a variety of new technologies in development. The discussion of small modular reactors (SMRs) ranged widely with some saying that, if they remain on track, widespread diffusion would be in the middle 2030s. Will deployment be speeded up? U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized efforts to accelerate nuclear development with, among other things, plans for several new designs to go critical in tests on the grounds of U.S. national laboratories by July 4.
Infrastructure and Permitting
A big issue was infrastructure – getting things built. There was an eye-opening discussion about the development of infrastructure as a distinctive asset class and the scale of its expansion over the last two decades. Many in the audience were surprised to learn that the airports out of which they habitually fly are owned by infrastructure funds. For the energy industry, investment by infrastructure funds in such assets as pipelines can free up capital that can be redeployed in core parts of the business. There was repeated citation of workforce bottlenecks and constraints even as much uncertainty was expressed as to how AI will transform work itself.
Infrastructure inevitably led to the question of permitting, which was a theme throughout the conference, relentlessly so, whether in terms of pipelines, transmission, or projects. This is endemic across much of the world. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson pointed to the effort to expedite permitting and projects in Canada to achieve status as “an energy superpower”, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith emphasized the need to match up the province’s endowment with access to markets. One example of the permitting imbroglio cited for the United States was five years to get a project permitted and four years to actually build the project.
Companies making long-term investment in energy require certainty and confidence that successive governments will not change the rules and terms and thus undermine such commitments. That certainly applies to mining projects around the world where successor governments renegotiate terms after billions of dollars have already been invested.
There was a conviction that this might be the year that permitting reform in the United States – including some limits on litigation – could be codified into law. But that would likely require bipartisan cooperation across both political and energy spectrums. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum observed that he had spent decades of his career in business process management and that eliminating downtimes in successive steps on a permitting application could mightily shrink from what might otherwise take two years as a permit winds its normal way through bureaucratic and regulatory processes.
A distinctive mining and minerals track ran across the program. It addressed innovation around rare earths and the “copper conundrum”, picking up on our study on Copper in the Age of AI. That report identified how the traditional vector of “core economic demand” has now been joined by four new vectors – energy transition (EVs and photovoltaics), AI and data centers, defense and the electrification of the battlefield and, down the road, humanoid robots. All that adds up in our bottoms-up analysis, to a 50 percent growth in copper demand by 2040 – less than 15 years away. But how to meet that demand when a tier one copper mine takes 17 yeas on average from discovery to main production? That tension provided the platform for a vibrant discussion.
For the first time, leaders from several semiconductor chip companies participated in CERAWeek – a notable sign of the new convergence. Artificial Intelligence is on the path to “infinite compute demand” and is fast colliding with the “power wall”. CERAWeek featured discussions on innovations in chip design including computer architecture, materials, manufacturing and packaging that are multiplying compute power while also reducing the power per unit of computation. Chip companies are seeking to collaborate closely with the power sector to make sure that power supply does not become a constraint. Convergence – or the will to convergence – in action!
Innovation Agora and “Looking Forward”
The Innovation Agora itself operated at a high energy level in dialogues about the opportunities presented by Artificial Intelligence. There was much discussion about different types of AI including Generative AI, Agentic AI and Industrial AI. For energy companies the big prize is the successful application of industrial AI in their operations. There is a transition underway in technology companies from providing “pure-play software” to “integrated industrial digital and AI solutions”. The premise is that humans will not be completely out of loop in industrial AI applications, but their decisions will be based on better analysis and will be more consistent.
Much of the activity at the Innovation Agora orbited around the three hubs – New Energies, Carbon and Climate, and AI. In addition, a number of companies and organizations had their own “houses” that demonstrated their technological capabilities and initiatives and served as forums for specific dialogues.
The distinctive “Look Forward” program on Friday homed in on the frontiers of energy technology and on “reimaging energy”. We were very happy to have two Senators join us. Senator Dave McCormick, speaking from the perspective of the two subcommittees he chairs, addressed the execution of the Iran war and the legislative progress on permitting. Senator John Hickenlooper focused in on deploying technologies to meet the challenges of climate. Also, as a geologist, he discussed how to make progress on critical minerals and, as a peer-reviewed scientist, warned about the considerable risks from cutting funding for scientific research and the disadvantage that it puts the United States in against China.
The Next Gen and Future Energy leader programs brought a large number of people in the earlier stages of their careers to CERAWeek to broaden their perspectives and give them the opportunity to interact with cross-sections from the global energy and technology worlds.
Strong regional programs were featured for India, China and greater Asia. Latin America focused on natural gas and power. The robust Africa program centered on “all the above” strategies, including how to accelerate economic development to match a rise in natural resources extraction.
But, again, as I said up front, this note provides only a partial picture of what unfolded in 1100 sessions over the week. Sessions ranged from investment strategies, regulatory reform, regional perspectives, to talent and human resources.
As I noted at the front, this can only be a partial view of an extraordinary week of dialogue and learning that advanced the understanding of conference participations and enhanced their sense of what is ahead. What of course resonates as we reflect back on the week are the bookends of the conference – a war with Iran creating the biggest energy disruption in history, and the promise of AI for the profound leaps in technology and innovation. These bookends and everything in between mark the reality of the energy world seeking resilience to the shocks and the vision to shape future possibilities.
By Daniel Yergin
Author of The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations