Uncertainty Has Overtaken Oil Markets

Stock.adobe.com

Uncertainty appears to have overtaken oil markets once again as the UAE and Saudi Arabia agree upon a production agreement but details regarding other OPEC+ members remain unclear. The baseline amendment agreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE foreshadowed a familiar path forward for the oil markets, at the same time the lack of detail on how exactly major OPEC+ producers would bring back production maintains a hefty level of uncertainty. Meanwhile, weak demand numbers from the US have cast doubts upon the health of gasoline demand amidst peak driving season, Oilprice said.

Continue reading

July Weakness Fueled By Reflation And Virus Variants

Stock.adobe.com

The commodity sector has faced a challenging beginning to a new quarter and this past week all sectors apart from precious metals traded lower, led by renewed losses across the agriculture sector, while in energy the prevailing positive narrative paused in response to a brewing OPEC feud clouding the outlook just as the spread of the delta virus variant sapped the general level of risk appetite.

Continue reading

The Perfect Equilibrium

Stock.adobe.com

Rystad Energy sees U.S. crude production closing this year at 11.62 mbpd, with September-October output dropping back from the summer months. Despite the overall beneficial pricing environment, 2021 production is hindered by the fact that some 35-40% of shale operators have hedged their output, i.e. producing more would trigger financial losses. US oil production, boosted by robust drilling from Texas and New Mexico, is expected to surpass the 12mbpd mark by October 2022, Oilprice said.

Continue reading

Surging Energy And Grain Prices Hogging The Spotlight

Photo: Stock.adobe.com

The commodity sector traded higher for a second week with strong gains in grains and energy more than offsetting another quiet week in metals, both precious and industrial. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index headed for its best week in two months with grains, led by corn, surging after a US report showing U.S. farmers likely planted fewer acres than previously expected. In energy, OPEC+ supported another leg up in oil prices while gas prices continued higher across the world, most noticeable in Europe where tightness has increased the risk of a summer supply crunch. 

Continue reading

BP: Global Humanitarian Crisis

Statistical Review Of World Energy 2021.

Since it was first published in 1952, the Statistical Review has provided a constant source of objective, comprehensive – and, most importantly – trusted data to help industry, governments and commentators make sense of developments in global energy markets. “This is the 70th anniversary of the bp Statistical Review – something we are incredibly proud of. Over those 70 years, the Statistical Review has borne witness to some of the most dramatic episodes in the history of the global energy system: the Suez Canal crisis in 1956; the oil embargo of 1973, soon followed by the Iranian revolution in 1979; more recently, the Fukushima disaster in 2011. All moments of great turmoil in global energy. But all pale in comparison to the events of last year” – Spencer Dale, bp’s chief economist said. 

Continue reading

Saxo Group. A European Revolution

Liberté, égalité, fraternité, or doing away with privilege of the ancien regime, was the most important slogan for the French revolutionists of the late-18th century. Now once again there is a growing sense of a ‘Revolution in Europe’ as voters, especially the younger ones, are leaning hard against the status quo in most countries. All eyes are on the German election on September 26th, where a Black-Green alliance is the most likely outcome, but where there is also an outside chance of the Greens taking the most votes and getting the keys to the Chancellery! This would be a revolution. 

Continue reading

Delta & Oil. New Covid Restrictions

Stock.adobe.com

The spread of the Delta variant is raising some red flags, with new restrictions on visits implemented in Hong Kong, Spain, and Portugal in recent days. New flareups in cases have occurred in the UK and Australia, among other places. The Delta variant could pose some oil demand risks, and oil prices have tapped on the brakes as a result. Oil clung to small gains as the market traded in anticipation of an OPEC+ meeting this week while eyeing the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19, said Bloomberg.

Continue reading

Oil Market Watching OPEC+ For Next Move

Stock.adobe.com

Financial markets spent the week recovering strongly after managing to shake off the FOMC aftershocks which initially sent the dollar and US Treasury yields higher, and stocks and commodities lower. Most of these initial moves have now reversed led by US equities reaching new all-time highs and long bond yields trading steady, while dollar traders are still trying to decide whether the Greenback’s post-FOMC rally will reassert or fully reverse.

Continue reading