The recent oil price rally was held back last week by rising inventories and concerns that the Fed may postpone its interest rate cuts, but geopolitical risks could yet spark another upward movement.Inventory builds in the US, red-hot inflation numbers that may postpone the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. On Friday morning, Brent was trading above $90 per barrel and there is plenty of upside risk left in oil markets, OilPrice said. 

OPEC lowers 2024 supply forecast. In its latest monthly report, OPEC kept its demand forecast for this year at 2.25 million b/d, however lowered non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2024 to 990,000 b/d, down 70,000 b/d from the previous month’s outlook. 

Red Sea crisis hikes shipping emissions. Global shipping emissions are poised for a setback as the Red Sea shipping crisis led to an 8-10% increase in container ship usage due to longer routes, with container-related emissions potentially rising as high as 257 million tonnes of CO2 this year if the disruptions remain in place.

For the first time ever, US natgas becomes cheaper than coal. According to the EIA, US natural gas will be cheaper to burn than coal for the first time on record as its 2024 Henry Hub forecast averages only $2.15 per mmBtu compared to a $2.45 per mmBtu average for coal. 

Texas gas prices turn negative again.Depressed by continuously rising Permian basin oil output and higher associated gas flows, natural gas prices at the Waha hub in Texas slumped to a negative -$2 per mmBtu this week with most US gas production currently pricing below costs of production.

China builds its own gas pricing index.China’s state-controlled pipeline giant PipeChina is developing the country’s first-ever proprietary natural gas price index as it wants to de-risk its own pricing from Asia’s benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM), saying it should better reflect its own supply/demand.