Following the crude markets is gradually becoming an extreme sport rather than a financial hobby, with US President Trump unleashing a flurry of contradictory messages this week, OilPrice said. 

Is the US holding talks with Iran? Trump says the talks are constructive, Iran says there were none. Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? One day, Trump states he would obliterate Iran if it doesn’t, the next day, the President claims he and the ayatollah will share control over it. In an atmosphere of absolute madness, ICE Brent remains in triple digits, climbing to $103 per barrel today after the military side of the Iran-Israel conflict keeps on escalating. 

A move widely interpreted as another edition of a classic Trump ‘TACO’ move, the White House has announced a 5-day postponement to US attacks on Iran power and energy infrastructure, citing ‘very good and productive conversations’. Whilst the move sent oil prices down by more than $10 per barrel as market participants continue to guess whether the talks are happening or not (Iran denies any interaction), Trump’s Truth Social post also raises potential insider trading issues.

 According to Bloomberg, contracts worth at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI were sold in the two minutes before Trump’s Iran post, almost tenfold the usual trading volume in oil futures. The S&P 500 index saw a similar surge in trading activity, seeing some 6,000 contracts traded that represent more than $2 billion in notional value. Meanwhile, the bullish positions taken up by hedge funds are mind-boggling with the total net length held in ICE Brent futures and options rising to 428,704 contracts in the week ending March 17, the highest in six years.

/OilPrice/