The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest Oil Market Report on November 13, 2025, highlighting a growing global oil surplus driven by robust supply growth outpacing modest demand increases. Raises demand growth forecasts for this year and next. 

The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 outlook by lifting supply growth to 2.5 million b/d and curbing demand growth to just 770,000 b/d, now expecting a whopping 4.1 million b/d surplus next year, equivalent to 4% of global crude demand. 

Global observed oil inventories surged by 77.7 million barrels (or 2.6 million barrels per day, mb/d) in September 2025, reaching the highest levels since July 2021. Non-OPEC+ countries drive most of this, adding 1.7 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d in 2026. OPEC+ supply dipped slightly in October due to maintenance but is set for voluntary cuts to ease later.

“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

2025 demand growth is revised to 790 thousand barrels per day year-over-year, falling short of the 800 kb/d mark, supported by petrochemical feedstocks but tempered by underperformance in that sector. 2026 growth is projected at 770 kb/d, with regional drivers including the US (+120 kb/d in 3Q25), China, and emerging markets like Nigeria.

Global oil output was 6.2 million bpd higher in October than at the start of this year, divided evenly between OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, the IEA said.

OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been boosting output since April. Other producers, such as the U.S. and Brazil, are also increasing supply, adding to glut fears and weighing on prices.

/IEA, X, Reuters, OilPrice/