In their latest research note, Saxo Bank speculates on the outcomes of the International Energy Forum to be held in Algiers on September 26-28. OPEC members will be in attendance, along with non-OPEC member Russia. Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen writes that a deal to cut production could trigger a price surge in oil, but that the gains are unlikely to last as long as the supply glut remains worldwide.

Oil traders turn to Algiers

Just as with gold, the oil market remains locked in a range with the pressure from oversupply being offset by renewed hope that OPEC and Russia may reach an agreement to cut production. OPEC members will meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum, which groups producers and consumers in Algeria from September 26-28. Non-OPEC producer Russia will also attend the forum.

After recording four days of gains, both WTI and Brent crude oil succumbed to profit-taking ahead of the weekend. A third weekly reduction in US inventories, a weaker dollar, and renewed verbal intervention from producers ahead of the Algiers gathering helped offset bearish news on the supply front.

According to this Bloomberg article, September has seen a rise in production of more than 800,000 barrels/day from Nigeria, Libya, and not least Russia which said its reached a new record of more than 11 million b/d this month. Rising production into an already oversupplied market is the challenge that troubled oil producers have to address when they sit down face to face.

Back in April a meeting in Doha failed to curb supply, which was due in part to Saudi Arabia’s insisting that a deal could not be done without Iran also participating. Fast forward almost six months and Iran has now reached its pre-sanctions production levels and that has raised speculation that some kind of deal can be hammered out. Representatives from Saudi Arabia and Iran met in Vienna ahead of the meeting and it apparently resulted in Saudi Arabia offering to cut production in exchange for Iran promising to freeze output.

Saudi Arabia produced around 10.2 million b/d during the first five months only to see it surge to a record in July at 10.67 million b/d. Offering a cut from those elevated levels, at a time of year where the seasonal production tend to slow anyway, looks like a smart move, but it still needs the unlikely acceptance by Tehran.

With US production having stabilized during the past two months the pressure on OPEC to support the market has grown, particularly considering that the prolonged oversupply has been driven by rising production among its own members.

We maintain the view that the upside remains limited until we see clear signs of the glut being reduced. A deal to cut production may trigger a speculative rush of buyers but once again, the low 50s in Brent crude oil should once again provide strong resistance.

Failure to act would return the focus to the aforementioned jump in production which carries the risk of seeing Brent crude trade below recent support at $45/b, potentially targeting $40/b.

Brent crude has so far been averaging $47.70/b this quarter, more or less in the middle of our $45 to $50/b target range. A “no deal” in Algiers could see the range being extended to the downside while a deal, depending on the content, may prompt a short-term rally above $50/b.