Swiftly organizing an in-person meeting in Riyadh, OPEC+ members agreed to extend the 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts until the third quarter of 2024, whilst also charting the course for a gradual relaxation of remaining cuts into 2025, OilPrice reported. 

The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend extended voluntary production cuts into Q3 2024 and the original 3.66 million bpd cuts until the end of 2025. That pledge was not enough to persuade market participants that the future of oil is bright, with Brent shedding almost $3 per barrel in just one trading day and sliding below the $77 per barrel mark. With the promise of more supply coming back to market in 2025, the list of bullish factors out there has shrunk to a bare minimum. 

Combining an in-person meeting in Riyadh with a hybrid online option for smaller producers, OPEC+ has agreed to extend existing production cuts into next year, whilst also paving the way for a gradual unwinding of most curtailments. Even though Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman maintained that OPEC+ has the choice to pause or even reverse the upcoming relaxations, the market at large saw it as a sign of more supply in a period of uncertain demand. 

The last round of voluntary production cuts agreed in November 2023 are set to be phased out over a 12-month period, lifting OPEC+ collective target to 36.27 million b/d, more than 2 million b/d higher than current output. The UAE was the big winner of the OPEC+ meeting, having secured another upgrade to its official production quota, allowing it to ramp up output by 300,000 b/d in several steps throughout 2025.