A new report shows the U.S. has achieved a record high in estimated future natural gas resources. Gas-to-oil ratios in the Bakken shale have hit new records, boosted by advancing natural gas pipeline projects. But U.S. natural gas production is expected to remain relatively flat in 2026 compared to 2025.
According to the American Gas Association, the U.S. currently has 3,871 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of total technically recoverable natural gas resources, combining traditional gas and coalbed gas. The association rolled out its 60th anniversary report to show a 507 Tcf or 16% increase in technically recoverable domestic natural gas resources compared to the previous biannual reportShale gas accounted for 58% of total natural gas resources. The total U.S. future natural gas supply, including both reserves and resources, stands at a record 4,562 Tcf.
U.S. LNG Exports Surge: September marked the second straight monthly record with 9.4 million metric tons exported, primarily to Europe (nearly two-thirds), despite a Sabine Pass shutdown; forecasts show exports rising to 16 billion cubic feet per day (0.336 million metric tons per day) in 2026 from 15 Bcf/d in 2025 (0.308 million metric tons per day).
Henry Hub spot prices dipped to $2.858/MMBtu last week, while the October NYMEX contract settled at $3.303. U.S. natural gas futures surged 5% on October 1, fueled by falling output and short covering, extending a three-day rally with a breakout above the 50-day moving average; traders eye $3.529 resistance amid forecasts for colder early October weather. As of October 2, natural gas traded at $3.44/MMBtu, down 1.07% daily but up 12.23% monthly.
Natural gas storage injections hit 75 Bcf (2,12 млрд куб. м) for the week ending September 19, with stocks 6% above the five-year average; Henry Hub prices are projected to climb to $4.30/MMBtu in 2026, spurring drilling in gas-rich areas as oil premiums narrow.
U.S. Generation Growth: Electricity output is forecast to rise 2.3% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, led by solar; natural gas will hold 40%, renewables 25-26%, with data centers driving demand.
EU Market Shift: Day-ahead electricity trading moved to 15-minute intervals on September 30, enhancing market dynamism; solar hit a record 22% of the EU mix in June, surpassing nuclear and pushing renewables to 54% overall.
Russia-China Pipeline: Details emerge on Power of Siberia 2, aimed at boosting gas flows to China amid shifting export dynamics; overall Russian LNG exports are detailed by destination, with volumes holding steady.
India Breakthrough: Oil India discovered rich natural gas deposits (87% methane) 17 km off the Andaman coast, potentially enhancing energy security and reducing imports. Oil India and GAIL signed an MoU to strengthen the natural gas value chain, aiming to improve domestic availability and access to demand centers.
/X, the American Gas Association/