Careful planning of energy resources is crucial to all countries and regions. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), one of the world’s regions most affected by climate change, already sees. The rising temperatures impose challenges on energy systems straining to meet the demands of economic growth, energy security and social welfare.

Between 1980 and 2022, temperatures across MENA increased by 0.46°C per decade, well above the world average of 0.18°C. Precipitation patterns have also changed significantly, aggravating existing water scarcity in some MENA countries, with droughts in Morocco in 2022 and Tunisia in 2023, while causing intense floods in 2022 in the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Yemen.

Decreasing rainfall and increasing incidents of drought are major concerns for the energy sector in some MENA countries, particularly in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region. They are projected to negatively impact current power generation, so even as the countries expand renewables generation to meet rising electricity demand and emission reduction goals, their energy systems will also have to build in more climate resilience to cope with expected increases in climate impacts.

The market for minerals that help power electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and other technologies that are key to clean energy transitions has doubled in size over the past five years.

If all planned critical mineral projects worldwide are realised, supply could be sufficient to support the national climate pledges announced by governments, according to our analysis. 

However, the risk of project delays and technology-specific shortfalls leave little room for complacency about the adequacy of supply. And more projects would in any case be needed by 2030 in a scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 °C.

 Diversity of supply also remains a concern, with many new project announcements coming from already dominant countries. Compared with three years ago, the market share of the top three critical mineral producers in 2022 either remained unchanged or increased further, especially for nickel and cobalt.

To ensure modern energy for all, investment in energy access in Africa needs to reach nearly USD 25 billion per year by 2030 – a small share of overall energy investment but a dramatic increase compared with today’s spending. To put it in context, USD 25 billion is equivalent to the cost of one new LNG terminal.

Today, more than 40% of the population in Africa lives without access to electricity, and 70% without access to clean cooking fuels. The socioeconomic impacts of this are huge.

Multiple recent crises have made it increasingly challenging for many to raise financing to support their clean energy ambitions, despite the continent’s huge needs and rich and varied resources. Africa accounts for around 20% of the world’s population but attracts less than 2% of global investment in clean energy.