The UAE just left OPEC after 60 years.

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced its decision to withdraw from both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026. The UAE, a member since 1967 (through Abu Dhabi), was the cartel’s third-largest producer. This move leaves OPEC with 11 members and significantly weakens the group’s cohesion at a highly volatile time.

Key Reasons

Frustration with production quotas: For years, the UAE has complained that OPEC+ cuts limited its ability to fully utilize its spare capacity (currently producing 30% below potential). Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in expanding output and aims to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

Strategic and economic vision: The decision reflects the UAE’s long-term goal of greater flexibility, market responsiveness, and alignment with its evolving energy profile and economic diversification (Vision 2031 and beyond).

Geopolitical context: The exit comes amid the ongoing Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have created a historic energy shock. Tensions with Saudi Arabia (OPEC’s de facto leader) over quotas, Yemen, and broader regional policy have also played a role. The move had reportedly been discussed internally for several years.

Consequences

For OPEC/OPEC+: A major blow to the cartel’s influence and unity. Losing one of the few members with significant spare capacity reduces OPEC+’s ability to manage global supply and prices effectively. It highlights deepening internal rifts, particularly between Gulf producers.

For oil markets: In the short term, limited immediate impact due to current Hormuz disruptions. In the medium to long term, the UAE is expected to gradually increase production, which could add downward pressure on prices once supply routes normalize and help fill global demand gaps.

For the UAE: Greater sovereignty over its energy policy, potential for higher revenues through increased output, and stronger positioning as an independent player in global energy markets.

Conclusions on the Situation in the Middle East

The UAE’s departure signals a broader realignment in the Gulf. It underscores Abu Dhabi’s assertive, pragmatic foreign policy – prioritizing national interests, diversification away from heavy oil dependence, and strategic autonomy over traditional bloc loyalty.

This move further strains the traditional Saudi-led order in OPEC and may accelerate fragmentation among Gulf monarchies. In the context of the Iran conflict, it highlights how regional security tensions (Hormuz crisis, differing threat perceptions) are directly influencing energy strategies.

Overall, the event reflects a wider trend: declining relevance of traditional oil cartels in a world of rising U.S. shale production, energy transition pressures, and shifting geopolitical priorities. The UAE is betting on flexibility and capacity expansion rather than collective discipline – a move that could reshape oil market dynamics for years to come and weaken OPEC’s long-term leverage over global energy prices.

‘The decision represents a rejection of the production-control system dominated in recent years by Saudi Arabia and signals the UAE will make its own decisions about output in future. It will be even more damaging if other major producers decide to leave or are emboldened to ignore output agreements to pursue their own interests,’ – John Kemp said.

The UAE spent $3.3 billion building the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline specifically to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. 406 kilometers of pipeline running from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields directly to the Gulf of Oman. Inside OPEC their production was capped at 3.41 million barrels per day. That cap is gone as of May 1. The Emirates had planned and developed this independent export route for years, enabling it to add up to 2 million barrels per day.

Maria Kutuzova