Based on today’s plans, between 2025 and 2030, nearly 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year of new liquefaction capacity is set to arrive from projects that have already reached a final investment decision or are under construction. The growth is set to be led by the United States, Qatar and Canada. Together, projects in these countries account for around 80% of expected capacity additions to 2030.
The IEA’s outlook is subject to a range of uncertainties, from construction delays to new progress on projects that have been approved but are currently stalled. However, a capacity increase of this scale would have significant implications for global gas markets.
Global natural gas demand returned to structural growth in 2024 and continued to expand in the first half of 2025,albeit at a markedly slower pace. Growth was primarily concentrated in Europe and North America, with adverse weather leading to stronger gas use in the buildings and power sectors. In contrast, gas demand was subdued in Asia, with both China and India recording demand declines in the first half of 2025.
Following a relatively strong increase in 2024, global natural gas demandgrew at a significantly slower rate in the first half of 2025. Preliminary data indicate that natural gas consumption increased by just 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the markets covered in this report. This growth was almost entirely driven by Europe and North America, while natural gas demand remained subdued in Asia and declined in Eurasia.
Market fundamentals remained tightin the first half of 2025 due to a combination of lower Russian piped gas exports to the European Union, slower growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) output and higher storage injection needs in Europe. This supported higher natural gas prices in key import markets and weighed on natural gas demand in Asia. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to fuel price volatility. The IEA continues to closely monitor developments in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran was a stark reminder that geopolitical factors can easily strain a fragile global gas balance.
Following an expected slowdown in 2025, natural gas demand growth is forecast to accelerate in 2026, sending total demand to a new all-time high. A strong increase in LNG supply is set to ease market fundamentals and foster more robust demand growth in Asia’s price-sensitive markets.
Natural gas demand in Asia markedly slowed in the first half of 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainty and tight supply.
In Europe, natural gas consumption in the first half of 2025 increased by 6.5% y-o-y, primarily supported by the electricity sector amid lower power generation from wind and hydro. While this should not be interpreted as a structural trend, such episodes highlight the key role gas-fired power plants often play in ensuring electricity supply security in markets with higher shares of variable renewables. In North America, natural gas demand increased by an estimated 2.5% y-o-y. Growth was concentrated in the first quarter, when colder weather boosted gas use in buildings.
In contrast, in Asia, gas demand growth slowed markedly in the first half of 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainty and relatively high spot LNG prices. China’s natural gas demand declined by an estimated 1% y-o-y, while the country’s LNG imports plummeted by more than 20%. India recorded a decline of 7% y-o-y in the first five months of the year, primarily due to lower demand from refining and industry. In Eurasia, gas consumption declined by about 2% yoy in the first half of 2025 amid an unseasonably mild winter in Russia.
For the full year, global gas demand growth is forecast to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to around 1.3% in 2025. Gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to expand by less than 1% – its weakest annual growth rate since 2022.
Market fundamentals remained tight in the first half of 2025, supporting higher prices in key import markets.
Global LNG supplygrew by 4% (or 12 bcm) y-o-y in the first half of 2025. This increase was largely supported by the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, which started operations in late 2024 and accounted for around two-thirds of incremental global LNG supply in the first half of the year. Higher LNG supplies were partly offset by lower Russian piped gas deliveries to the European Union, which dropped by 45% (or 6.5 bcm) y-o-y over the same period, following the halt of gas transit flows via Ukraine at the beginning of 2025. In addition, Norway’s piped gas supplies to the rest of Europe declined by 4.5% (or 3 bcm) y-o-y due to higher maintenance activity.
Stronger storage injections needs in Europe are also tightening the global gas balance. The European Union closed the 2024/25 heating season with inventories 42% (or 25 bcm) below where they stood a year earlier. In the second quarter of 2025, EU storage injections surged by 36% (or almost 7 bcm) y-o-y, while piped gas exports to Ukraine rose more than twelvefold, primarily to support storage refills. As a result of stronger storage injections, higher domestic demand and lower piped gas imports, Europe’s LNG imports rose by 25% (or almost 20 bcm) y-o-y, reaching an all-time high of 92 bcm in the first half of 2025.
Tighter market fundamentals supported higher gas prices in key import markets, with European hub and Asian LNG spot prices averaging 40% and 28% above levels in the first half of 2024, respectively. Higher prices weighed on gas demand in price-sensitive Asian import markets.
The Israel-Iran conflict renewed price volatility. The conflict between Israel and Iran that escalated in June highlighted the Middle East’s crucial role in global energy supply security. The crisis fuelledstrong price volatilityacross commodity markets. Benchmark European TTF month-ahead pricessurged by 18% to USD 14/million British thermal units (MBtu) between 10 and 19 June – their highest level since late February. Asian spot LNG prices followed a similar trajectory, with Platts JKM rising by 16% to a four-month high of USD 14.8/MBtu. In the days after the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire on 24 June, gas prices fell by almost 20%, returning close to their pre-crisis levels.
The initial increase in prices was largely driven by the fear that an escalation of the conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical oil and LNG chokepoint, which is located between Iran and Oman. In the case of gas, higher prices were also supported by the actual disruption of production and physical trade flows. Due to rising security concerns, Israel shut gas production at the Leviathan and Karish fields between 13 and 25 June and halted piped gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, leading to the curtailment of fertiliser production. Production and trade flows were gradually restored following the ceasefire. The Israel-Iran conflict highlighted the strong relationship between gas supply and food supply security.
Global LNG supply is expected to increase in 2026 at the fastest pace since 2019 …
For the whole of 2025, global LNG supply is expected to increase by 5.5% (or 30 bcm), primarily supported by the ramp-ups of major new LNG projects in North America. These include the Plaquemines LNG project and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, as well as LNG Canada. Growth in LNG supply is set to be partially offset by lower Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe. This forecast assumes no Russian piped gas deliveries via Ukraine for the remainder of the year, which would reduce Russian piped gas supplies to the Europe Union by around 13 bcm in 2025 compared with 2024. In 2026, global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate to 7% (or 40 bcm), its strongest increase since 2019. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada and Qatar’s North Field East expansion project, which is expected to start operations in mid-2026.
Global gas consumption is expected to reach an all-time high in 2026, with demand growth accelerating to around 2% amid easing supply fundamentals. Gas consumption by industry and by the energy sector is forecast to contribute to around half of incremental gas demand. Gas-to-power demand is projected to account for 30% of demand growth in 2026, while gas use in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by around 1%, assuming average weather conditions.
Asia’s gas demand is expected to rise by more than 4% in 2026, accounting for around half of global gas demand growth. Consequently, the region’s LNG importsare projected toincrease by 10% in 2026 following an expected decline in 2025. In Eurasia, gas consumption is forecast to increase by 2%, while combined demand in Africa and the Middle East is forecast to increase by 3.5%. In North America, natural gas demand is expected to increase by less than 1%, primarily supported by the power sector. In Central and South America, natural gas use is projected to marginally decline amid higher renewables output. Gas demand in Europe is set to decline by 2%, also amid stronger renewables output. That said, this forecast is subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainties stemming from the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.
/IEA/