Strong Oil Demand Growth Is Here To Stay

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Oil prices held their gains at the start of the week, with Brent at $71 and WTI just below $70. “For many, the $70 per barrel oil signal may be enough for investors to cash out of the bull cycle early – likely what happened today – which would stifle the upward price trajectory forecasted by our bullish crude balances,” said Louise Dickson, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Investors are scoping up options bets on crude that pay off if oil prices soar to $100 per barrel. 

Global oil demand is set to rebound and remain robust for some time, BP’s chief executive Bernard Looney told Bloomberg News on the sidelines of an economic forum in Russia, reiterating views expressed by most forecasters and analysts. “There is a lot of evidence that suggests that demand will be strong, and the shale seems to be remaining disciplined,” Looney commented.

Global petrostate revenues could reach $975 billion this year, but it will be the last year that revenues approach the $1 trillion mark as the energy transition takes hold. “As the energy transition ramps up, countries highly dependent on tax revenue from the upstream industry may have no other option than to diversify their economy to sustain state budgets,” Rystad analysts said.

Higher oil prices offer oil companies and private equity firms the opportunity to sell off U.S. shale assets. In the first five months of 2021, land deals have totaled $6.9 billion, nearly as much as the $7 billion in total deals for all of 2020, Oilprice said.