Brent breaks back above $80 as OPEC+ meeting looms, OilPrice reported.

Brent climbed back above $80 on Tuesday as storms disrupted oil and product exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk port, but it is U.S. inventories and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting that will drive oil price movements this week. 

Oil and product exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk port located on the country’s Black Sea coast have been halted for days due to severe storms, most probably forcing exporters to move sizable parts of this month’s loading schedule to December. 

The postponement of last week’s OPEC+ meeting put downward pressure on oil prices, but storms blocking Russian export terminals have added some pricing upside as Kazakhstan’s oil producers are considering production cuts to avoid storage tanks overfilling. With ICE Brent now back above $80 per barrel, US inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting will shape price developments in the second half of this week. 

This year’s Thanksgiving has recorded the busiest air traffic day ever according to the US Transportation Security Administration, with more than 2.9 million people traveling through the country’s airports. Returning jet fuel demand has been a hallmark of this year’s crude oil demand, with India recently reporting the highest kerosene consumption figures since March 2020 at 177,000 b/d.

Jet fuel has been the most sizable product category to grow this year, adding more than 900,000 b/d year-on-year to hit the highest post-pandemic annual reading of 6.2 million b/d, largely boosted by higher Asian aviation activity.

Consequently, jet fuel prices in Asia rose to their highest since early 2019 against peer product diesel, with swaps trading at a premium of 85 cents per barrel, despite arbitrage being narrowly open to both Europe and the US.

OPEC clashes with the IEA. OPEC Secretary General Haitham al Ghais accused the International Energy Agency of vilifying the oil and gas industry, adding that the IEA plays down issues such as energy security and affordability, calling for a “dangerous” phase-down in energy investment.  

Markets start to lose faith in oil.Net positions in the WTI futures contract have shrunk for the seventh consecutive week, bringing the total of net long positions to the lowest reading since June at 104 million barrels’ equivalent and reflecting a general decline in bullish sentiment.