Last week (March 8-14, 2026) has been one of the most volatile periods for the global oil market in recent history, driven primarily by the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran and the effective blockade (or severe restrictions) of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply normally passes.
Key Price Movements
Brent Crude peaked near $119-120 per barrel early in the week (around March 9-10) amid peak panic over the Hormuz disruption. Experienced sharp intraday and daily swings, including corrections of 20-30% at times. Closed the week (March 13 settlement) at approximately $103.14-103.86 per barrel, up roughly +2.7% on the final day. Weekly net change: Strong overall gain of +30-50% from late February/early March levels, with monthly gains exceeding 50% in some reports.
WTI Crude (US benchmark):
Followed a similar pattern, hitting highs around $118-119. Settled around $98.71 on March 13, up +3.11% that day. Weekly performance: Gains in the +30-45% range over the prior period, remaining highly sensitive to Gulf supply news. Prices remain elevated but below initial panic highs, reflecting a mix of supply fears and partial offsetting measures.
Major Events and Drivers This Week
March 9-10 peak: Extreme volatility as Hormuz tanker traffic halted almost completely: record daily and weekly surges reminiscent of 1979-1980 or 1990 crises.
Mid-week correction (March 10-11): Temporary pullback after US announcements of temporary waivers sanctions relief on some Russian oil exports (30-day grace for certain loadings) and IEA/coordinated release of strategic reserves (up to 400 million barrels discussed).
Late-week rebound (March 12-14): Renewed escalation – Iranian statements vowing to keep the strait closed, additional attacks on vessels, doubts about reserve effectiveness, and US warnings of further strikes: prices pushed back above $100 (Brent settling over $103).
Geopolitical rhetoric intensified, with reports of US Navy concerns over safely reopening the strait and Iranian threats of even tighter restrictions.
Broader Market Impacts
Major indices posted weekly losses for the third consecutive week, pressured by energy-driven inflation fears and risk-off sentiment. US gasoline prices surged (some areas +23-35% in recent weeks); diesel and jet fuel saw even sharper moves. Asian markets faced acute shortages, with LNG prices doubling in some regions.
Forecasts vary wildly – base cases still hover around $70-80 long-term, but prolonged disruption scenarios now project $140-200 per barrel (Goldman Sachs, others). Markets are trading like a meme stock until Hormuz reopens.
The market remains news-driven and extremely sensitive to any developments in the Iran conflict, Hormuz status, or major supply interventions. A sustained blockade keeps upward pressure alive, while meaningful de-escalation, successful naval escorts, or massive reserve draws could trigger sharp corrections.
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