Strong global oil supply growth expected to more than eclipse rise in demand this year.

Global oil demand growth is set to lose momentum this year, easing some pressure on markets despite ongoing strains, the IEA reported. 

Market balances tightened in January as an extreme Arctic freeze swept through key oil producing regions in the United States and Canada, coinciding with fresh voluntary output curbs by some OPEC+ countries. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added further upward pressure, as oil tankers circumventing the Red Sea disrupted supply flows to global markets.

The sharp decline in output in January set the year off to a difficult start, according to the report. However, higher oil supply this year from non-OPEC+ countries – led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada – should more than eclipse the expected rise in world oil demand.

The expansive post-pandemic growth phase in global oil demand has largely run its course, the report finds. The IEA’s latest forecast is that world oil demand growth will average 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, only half last year’s expansion. As in 2023, gains will be dominated by a few key countries, most notably China, and to a lesser extent India and Brazil.

/The IEA/