This year’s Global Outlook from ExxonMobil arrives at a moment of profound disruption. Events in the Middle East have triggered one of the largest energy supply shocks in modern history, affecting roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG supplies along with critical products such as fertilizer, aluminum, and petrochemicals. The full consequences may take years to unfold, yet the crisis has sharply reinforced a long-standing reality: reliable access to affordable energy remains essential for economic growth and human development. History shows that the global energy mix has shifted only gradually over decades. The Outlook projects that this pattern will continue even as demand rises and technologies evolve.

Economic growth is the primary engine of energy demand. The world’s population is expected to increase by about 1.5 billion people by 2050, almost entirely in developing countries. Global GDP is projected to expand by roughly 80 percent, with developing nations growing twice as fast as developed ones. Average income per person is forecast to rise about 70 percent worldwide, lifting living standards and increasing energy use. More than four billion people currently live in countries that lack sufficient energy to meet modern standards of living. Meeting basic needs—electricity, clean cooking fuels, reliable infrastructure, mobility, and productive jobs—requires substantial additional energy. Providing enough energy for the world to reach basic living standards would demand nearly 20 percent more energy in 2050 than the Outlook’s base case, even after significant efficiency gains.

In this environment, every major energy source has a role. Renewables are projected to grow the fastest. Coal will decline the most yet remain important in many countries for energy security. Oil and natural gas together will still account for more than half of the global energy mix in 2050. Industry and commercial transport, which underpin the global economy, will require growing supplies. Oil is expected to remain the single largest component of the mix, supported by commercial transportation and industrial growth, especially in developing economies. The Outlook projects oil demand reaching approximately 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from just over 100 million barrels per day in 2025.

Natural gas demand is forecast to rise to about 520 billion cubic feet per day by 2050, an increase of roughly 20 percent from 2025 levels. Gas will continue to displace coal in many markets because of its versatility and lower emissions intensity, even as some countries retain coal for security reasons. By 2050 the world is expected to use 30 percent less coal than today, with the fuel replaced by a combination of renewables and natural gas.

Sustained investment in oil and gas is becoming more critical each year. Global oil production declines naturally at about 15 percent per year in the absence of new investment—a rate that has risen because of the growing share of unconventional (tight oil and shale) resources, which deplete faster than conventional fields. Over the past decade, upstream oil investment has fallen by roughly 30 percent. When normalized against natural depletion, the effective drop is closer to 45 percent. Without new investment, global natural gas supply would decline at about 11 percent annually, creating a shortfall of more than 350 billion cubic feet per day by 2035—approximately 75 percent of projected demand. Even limiting investment to existing fields would slow the decline only to about 3 percent per year, still insufficient to meet the levels implied by the International Energy Agency’s Announced Pledges Scenario or IPCC pathways consistent with limiting warming to well below 2 °C. Continuous investment in finding and developing new resources is therefore required to bridge the gap between declining supply and rising demand through 2050.

Technology continues to reshape the supply picture, as the U.S. tight-oil experience illustrates. Between 1970 and 2008, U.S. oil production fell nearly 50 percent, from about 10 million barrels per day to 5 million. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling reversed that decline, enabling the United States to achieve record production above 10 million barrels per day each year since 2017. Average lateral lengths in the Permian Basin have more than doubled since 2010 and now exceed 3 kilometers, while completion intensity (proppant per meter of lateral) has increased more than fourfold. Looking back at ExxonMobil’s 2015 Outlook, current projections for U.S. tight-oil production in later years are about 40 percent higher than anticipated a decade ago, reflecting continuous technological improvement. North American oil production is expected to peak sometime in the next decade as tight-oil fields mature, yet ongoing advances—including lighter proppants and enhanced oil recovery—will continue to influence the trajectory. A sensitivity case assuming further breakthroughs in well productivity adds roughly 0.5 million barrels per day in 2050; the absence of continued innovation could reduce output by about 2 million barrels per day relative to the base case.

Electricity demand is projected to grow 65 percent globally by 2050, driven primarily by improving living standards in developing countries. The industrial sector accounts for about 40 percent of that growth; commercial buildings (including data centers), residential buildings, and transportation also contribute. In OECD countries, electricity demand is expected to rise about 35 percent after two decades of relative stagnation, as efficiency gains no longer fully offset electrification of industry and transport plus data-center needs. Solar and wind generation are forecast to increase more than fourfold, rising from roughly 15 percent of global electricity generation today to more than 40 percent and meeting about 85 percent of the growth in power demand. Natural gas-fired generation is still expected to expand by about 25 percent, providing essential grid stability. North America is projected to remain the largest natural-gas producer, supporting both domestic use and exports. The Middle East will record the largest production growth, while Asia-Pacific demand growth will be met largely by imports. Europe is expected to continue relying on imported gas to support industry and commerce.

LNG will play an expanding role. In 2025 it already met nearly 15 percent of global natural-gas demand; by 2050 that share is projected to exceed 20 percent as trade volumes roughly double. Asia-Pacific is expected to account for about 70 percent of the growth in LNG demand, helping the region reduce carbon intensity while sustaining economic expansion. New supply will come predominantly from North America, the Middle East, and Africa. North America’s abundant unconventional gas will feed both new LNG projects and rising domestic demand. African production, led by Mozambique and Nigeria, could support both domestic prosperity and exports. Middle Eastern exporters are expected to more than double capacity by mid-century.

Affordability will determine the pace of any energy transition. Lower-emission solutions are generally more expensive and remain out of reach for many consumers, particularly in developing economies with limited disposable income. There is still no universally accepted definition of an “affordable” transition, yet the impact of higher energy costs on households is a binding constraint. Sustained economic growth that raises average incomes by roughly 70 percent by 2050, combined with continued innovation that lowers technology costs, can improve affordability over time. Without these conditions, the transition risks slowing or becoming socially unsustainable.

A sensitivity analysis on electric vehicles underscores the scale of the challenge. In the base case, battery-electric vehicles are projected to represent more than 20 percent of new car sales by 2035 and about 30 percent by 2050 (excluding plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles). An extreme case assuming 100 percent battery-electric sales from 2035 onward would produce an almost fully electrified global car fleet by 2050 and reduce oil demand to levels last seen in 2010. Even under that aggressive assumption, oil and gas would remain essential for industry, commercial transport, aviation, shipping, and petrochemicals—sectors that together account for the majority of remaining demand.

Taken together, the 2026 Global Outlook portrays an energy system that must expand substantially while becoming cleaner and more resilient. Population growth, rising prosperity, and the need for energy security all point to continued reliance on oil and natural gas alongside rapid growth in renewables and electricity. High natural decline rates mean that underinvestment today creates large supply gaps tomorrow. Technology has repeatedly rewritten production forecasts, and further innovation remains critical. Affordability, not ambition alone, will govern how quickly lower-emission solutions scale. In a world still recovering from one of the largest supply shocks in decades, the central message is clear: every energy source will be required for decades to come if the dual goals of economic development and emissions reduction are to be met.

Maria Kutuzova /ExxonMobil, The 2026 Global Outlook/