As Bloomberg has noted, the main tenet of European gas policy going into the winter season of 2022/2023 – lower consumption – is not yet happening.
The last week of September has seen the first string of below-average temperatures in Europe and German consumers increased their gas consumption to 14% above the 5-year average.
EU member states have agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% this winter, starting from August, meaning that despite high gas inventories the demand loss is lagging significantly.
Peaking in late August, Europe’s benchmark TTF spot prices have been plummeting recently to €170 per MWh, some 30% lower month-on-month but still triple what they were a year ago, OilPrice said.
IEA forecasts huge gas demand drop. The International Energy Agency has forecast a 10% decline in European gas demand, the largest year-on-year drop on record, followed by a further 4% decrease in 2023, with most of the losses coming from the continent’s embattled industry.
The UN’s International Methane Emissions Observatory stated that the ruptures on the Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2 are most likely the biggest single release of methane in history, leaking at a rate of 22,920 kg per hour.
/OilPrice, Bloomberg, IEA/