The energy landscape is in flux, with a focus on electricity demand from Big Tech for AI. Data centers now account for over 4% of U.S. electricity consumption, potentially rising to 10% by 2028. Chip production also requires substantial power.
Yergin acknowledges that wind and solar cannot meet current needs, favoring modern natural gas-fueled electric turbines. Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and MHI are struggling to keep up with demand, with a wait time of at least a decade for new turbines.
The nuclear power renaissance is driven by Big Tech’s need for reliable base loads. Constellation Energy is restarting a reactor at Three Mile Island, while Amazon and Meta are partnering with nuclear companies. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is considering a fusion plant. However, nuclear is a long-term solution, and the industry may face an oversupply situation.
Copper is another critical bottleneck, with demand surging due to energy and EV needs. The price has risen 41% this year. The U.S., with only two operational copper smelters, faces challenges in meeting this demand, while China dominates the processing sector. The U.S. is developing new copper projects but faces permitting and judicial delays.
Hydrogen’s potential as a new energy source has diminished. The U.S. has emerged as the world’s leading producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is crucial for powering electric turbines. LNG has become a strategic business.
U.S. oil production has increased from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 13.5 million in 2025, with 6 million barrels of petroleum liquids. There’s debate about whether the U.S. has reached its peak oil production. Oil demand in the U.S. is flat, with most growth coming from China, which is shifting to electric cars. By the early 2030s, oil demand may plateau.
Yergin describes the competition with China as “The Art of the Deal versus the Long March.” China is focused on self-sufficiency and reorienting trade away from the U.S. Only 15% of Chinese exports go to the U.S., allowing them to source goods from other countries. Chinese officials view the U.S. as dysfunctional, contrasting with China’s controlled society. Dan Yergin said, “They have their own way of operating—as a very controlled society. The Chinese really do see the U.S., in some ways, in decline, even as we have what is actually the most successful large economy in the world.”
/Daniel Yergin, Author of The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations; Puck, Bill Cohan/