The fundamental objective of the energy transition is to replace most of today’s energy system with a completely different system. Yet throughout history, no energy source, including traditional biomass of wood and waste, has declined globally in absolute terms over an extended period.

In 2024 global production of wind and solar energy reached record levels—levels that would have seemed unthinkable not long before. Over the past 15 years, wind and solar have grown from virtually zero to 15 percent of the world’s electricity generation, and solar panel prices have fallen by as much as 90 percent. Such developments represent a notable advance in what is called the energy transition—the shift from the current hydrocarbon-dominated energy mix to a low-carbon one dominated by renewable sources.

Yet 2024 was a record year in another regard, as well: the amount of energy derived from oil and coal also hit all-time highs. Over a longer period, the share of hydrocarbons in the global primary energy mix has hardly budged, from 85 percent in 1990 to about 80 percent today. In other words, what has been unfolding is not so much an “energy transition” as an “energy addition.” Rather than replacing conventional energy sources, the growth of renewables is coming on top of that of conventional sources.

A global economy in transition depends on another transition—a shift from “big oil” to “big shovels.” That means much more mining and processing, driven by major new investments and resulting in much-expanded industrial activity. Yet the complexities surrounding mining and critical minerals represent another major constraint on the pace of the energy transition. The International Energy Agency has projected that global demand for the minerals needed for “clean energy technologies” will quadruple by 2040.

Today’s energy transition is meant to be fundamentally distinct from every previous energy transition: it is meant to be transformative rather than an additive. But so far it is “addition,” not replacement. The scale and variety of the challenges associated with the transition mean that it will not proceed as many expect or in a linear way: it will be multidimensional, proceeding at different rates with a different mix of technologies and different priorities in different regions. That reflects the complexities of the energy system at the foundation of today’s global economy. It also makes clear that the process will unfold over a long period and that continuing investment in conventional energy will be a necessary part of the energy transition. A linear transition is not possible; instead, the transition will involve significant tradeoffs. The importance of also addressing economic growth, energy security, and energy access underscores the need to pursue a more pragmatic path.

Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya