Oil market set to be well supplied in 2025, although geopolitical risks remain.

Growth in global oil demand is forecast to remain modest this year while output is expected to rise steadily – indicating a well-supplied market in 2025. However, as recent years have shown, market shocks can arrive with little or no warning, making close attention to oil security as important as ever.

Global oil demand growth is set to rise slightly from an average of under 900,000 barrels per day last year to around 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Meanwhile, supply is set to continue to expand at a healthy pace, led by producers in the Americas.

The decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of its additional voluntary production cuts by another three months has materially reduced the potential supply overhang that was set to emerge this year. Even so, persistent overproduction from some OPEC+ members, robust supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries and the relatively modest global oil demand growth leaves the market looking comfortably supplied.

/IEA/