India and Southeast Asia are set to drive energy demand to 2050.
The global energy transition is no longer a distant goal – it’s happening now, and we’re in its acceleration phase. As solar, batteries, and EVs continue to scale, we will eventually move past peak growth and into a sustainable cruising speed. Then, our focus will shift to maintaining progress toward a cleaner, more resilient energy future. This is the future we must all work toward, and we are confident that with the right mix of technology, policy, and commitment, it’s within reach.
The global energy landscape is set to undergo a transformational shift, not only in its energy mix but also in its geographical distribution and consumption patterns. Over the past two decades, global energy demand has surged by more than 50%, bringing total energy consumption to 635 exajoule (EJ) in 2023.
China and India have been the primary engines of this growth, accounting for more than 60% of the total increase. In contrast, useful energy demand in the United States and the European Union has reached a plateau and is expected to remain stable under the 1.6-degree scenario. Looking ahead to 2050, China is projected to see lower overall energy consumption as its economy transitions towards more services and less energy intensive manufacturing, coupled with a population decline of 110 million people.
However, useful energy per capita is expected to increase from 15,000 kWh/person today to 19,000 kWh/person in 2050 due to improvements in energy efficiency. Under the 1.6-degree scenario, China’s energy demand is expected to decline to 122 EJ by 2050, though the country will continue to be the world’s largest energy consumer.
India, on the other hand, is poised to be the largest driver of global energy demand growth. This will be fueled by the demand for energy-intensive goods such as cement and iron & steel to build infrastructure, rising vehicle ownership, and increased aviation demand driven by growing wealth. Under the 1.6-degree scenario, India’s energy demand is expected to increase by 20 EJ to 60 EJ in 2050, while useful energy demand per person is projected to rise to 7,000 kWh.
Southeast Asia is also expected to see sustained growth in energy consumption, with the Philippines and Indonesia as the largest contributors. The region’s demand will be propelled by rapid urbanization, industrial expansion, and economic development.
/Rystad Energy/