Slower growth in global oil demand expected this year and next.

World oil demand continues to rise at a slower pace in 2024 and 2025 than in the previous few years, according to the latest monthly Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency.

The report finds that oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May. Growth in global oil demand is expected to average less than 1 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, tempered by energy efficiency improvements, the electrification of road transport, and weaker industrial activity in some markets. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 remains largely in line with the level the International Energy Agency predicted over a year ago.

Meanwhile, global oil output trended higher in the second quarter of this year, led by the United States. For the whole of 2024, world oil supply is on track to increase by an average of 770,000 barrels per day to a record high. In 2025, global supply growth is projected to be much stronger, at 1.8 million barrels per day, with countries outside the OPEC+ group – mainly in the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil – leading gains for a third consecutive year. According to the report, these trends could ease pressure on oil markets, which continue to be affected by significant geopolitical uncertainty. 

/IEA/