The oil markets are increasingly forming a consensus view on 2026 prices, with a Reuters survey of analysts and economists yielding a $62 per barrel average for next year, a whopping $10 per barrel lower than their initial 2026 predictions.

The disappointing tug-of-war between oil doomers that anticipated a rapid return of Russian supply to markets after a quick Russia-Ukraine peace deal and the remaining oil bulls expecting military action in Venezuela has ultimately led to November going down as one of the most boring months in recent history, with ICE Brent trading within a $3-per-barrel trading range all month ($62.48 to $65.16). As the OPEC+ meeting brought exactly what the markets expected, all eyes are now on the Witkoff-led shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv that could tilt the balance in December, OilPrice reported.

As assumed, OPEC+ members agreed to keep production levels unchanged for Q1 2026 as the group acknowledged oversupply risks amidst slackening demand, whilst also approving an internal mechanism to assess countries’ production capacity for 2027.

The IEA’s expectations of a 4.2 million b/d oversupply are the most extreme outlook, perhaps overtly biased; however, even the most conservative estimate puts the total stock-build in 2026 at 0.5 million b/d.

ICE Brent front-month futures have averaged $68.80 per barrel in January-November 2025, a more than $11 per barrel drop compared to the 2024 average. 

US shale output starting to decline next year – with WTI projected to average $59 per barrel, some $3-4 below the breakeven cost of a new Permian well – should put a floor under prices, so steeper price slumps are considered less likely.

High freight costs have so far restricted the flood of Atlantic Basin barrels into Asia; however, with the Brent-Dubai EFS spread now trading negative, it is only a matter of time before easing freight costs open up those floodgates.

/OilPrice/