The ban could reshape global gas markets, increasing demand for U.S. and Middle Eastern LNG, but it may also strain EU industries reliant on affordable energy. 

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) published a research paper titled “The EU Proposal to Ban Russian Gas Imports: Roadblock More Than Roadmap” in July 2025, authored by Katja Yafimava. The paper critiques the EU’s plan to phase out Russian gas and LNG imports by 2027 by January 1, 2026, for new contracts, with existing short-term contracts allowed until June 17, 2026, and long-term contracts (e.g., for Hungary and Slovakia) until January 1, 2028. Importers must provide gas origin evidence, and Member States must submit diversification plans by March 2026. The ban aims to enhance EU energy security amid geopolitical risks.

The paper argues the proposal faces significant hurdles. Replacing pipeline gas for land-locked countries is challenging due to infrastructure constraints. Legal ambiguities about force majeure and contract termination could lead to disputes. The requirement for molecule-tracking adds complexity and costs, potentially weakening negotiating positions. Member States like Hungary and Slovakia have opposed the ban, securing exemptions until 2028, straining EU solidarity. Companies with long-term Russian LNG contracts complicate the phase-out timeline.

The ban is unlikely to significantly affect gas prices due to sufficient alternatives, but short-term price volatility may occur. Compliance costs could be passed on to consumers. Disparities in diversification ability could lead to uneven economic burdens. The Kremlin criticizes the ban as prioritizing more expensive imports over cheaper Russian gas, which could harm EU competitiveness. The authors question whether the modest post-2027 Russian gas volume justifies the regulatory and economic risks.

Strengths of the proposal include reinforcing EU energy security, but its complexity and potential for uneven implementation undermine its effectiveness. The ban could reshape global gas markets but may strain EU industries reliant on affordable energy.

Historical trends show EU gas diversification efforts have accelerated since 2022, with U.S. and Qatari LNG imports rising, but Russian LNG remains a small part of the EU’s energy mix. Global reactions include Kremlin criticism and EU industry concerns about energy costs.

The full paper is available at [The EU Proposal to Ban Russian Gas Imports: Roadblock More Than Roadmap] (https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-eu-proposal-to-ban-russian-gas-imports-roadblock-more-than-roadmap/).